Making Democracy Work in Bolivia
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A Fractured Country
Bolivia's past has been so tumultuous that “Bolivianization” at one point became a synonym for political and social decomposition. The country's troubles are the direct result of its demography, geography, history, and long dependence on a few rich natural resources.
Bolivia's population is a unique amalgamation of ethnicities—a remarkable mix of pre- and post-Columbian cultures, institutions, religions, languages, and belief systems. Over 60 percent (the largest such percentage in Latin
A Breaking State
The surge in unrest since the turn of the century and the election of Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous leader, are in some ways the culmination of a long history of antagonistic intergroup relations and elite domination of the state, brought to a climax by a dispute over how to manage the country's gas reserves.
The profound mistrust between groups complicates any attempt to strengthen government and fix the country's deep-rooted problems. Few of the dynamic mestizo entrepreneurs in Santa
Unpopular Participation
Until now, attempts to deal with the country's problems have focused on improving government performance, but have ignored identity and regional divisions and the poor investment climate. For example, the most important such reforms launched up to now, the Law of Popular Participation enacted in 1994 and the 1995 Law of Decentralization, broke with Bolivia's long history of centralized administration by dividing the territory into 311 municipalities, 187 of them new and covering nearly
Morales's Challenge
Morales's administration enjoys possibly the strongest electoral mandate in the country's history and far more fiscal flexibility than its predecessors because of higher hydrocarbon royalties and reduced debts from an International Monetary Fund write-off. However, it still faces some immediate challenges. The economy is suffering from a shortage of capital and job-producing growth. A 58 percent decline in investment levels from the late 1990s has caused much hardship in labor-intensive
Refounding the Bolivian State
“Refounding” the Bolivian state, something Morales called for during his electoral campaign, requires forming—for the first time—a comprehensive national consensus on how to distribute the country's mineral royalties, energize its economy, and reshape its governing structures.
A Delicate Role for Outsiders
Bolivia's heavy dependence on foreign investment and aid gives outsiders a special—if highly delicate—role to play in the years ahead. Although the United States has historically been the most influential external actor, Brazil, the region's most powerful country and Bolivia's most important foreign investor, will have a far easier time shaping negotiations between disparate groups because its actions will not automatically be viewed suspiciously by most Bolivians.
Bolivia has one of the highest
Representative Institutions and Democracy
Bolivia exemplifies a phenomenon far too common across Latin America and much of the developing world. Even though the country has spent two decades following the international community's standard economic and political reform agenda, regularly holding elections, practicing responsible fiscal management, and liberalizing markets, its government, society, and economy do not meet the needs of most of its people. Bolivia's implementation of these supposed remedies has succeeded only in generating
Conclusion
Morales and his government have the opportunity to transform Bolivia, although not necessarily along the lines some of his supporters want. Having won a clear mandate thanks to his December landslide victory and the March legislative approval of his plan to create a commission to rewrite the country's constitution, Morales has the stature to act magnanimously toward his opponents and assertively against extremists in seeking to forge a consensus on how Bolivia can find peace and prosperity for
Seth Kaplan ([email protected]) is a freelance writer who is currently working on a book on alternative development strategies for fragile states. The author thanks Carlos Villegas Quiroga, Antonio Aranibar Arze, Fernando Mayorga Ugarte, Jules Lampell, and Miguel Buitrago for their suggestions and assistance.
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Seth Kaplan ([email protected]) is a freelance writer who is currently working on a book on alternative development strategies for fragile states. The author thanks Carlos Villegas Quiroga, Antonio Aranibar Arze, Fernando Mayorga Ugarte, Jules Lampell, and Miguel Buitrago for their suggestions and assistance.